Boeing 787 flight tests get off to promising start

The omens for a fourth quarter handover to launch customer All Nippon Airways (ANA) was boosted not only by the remarks of Boeing’s Dennis O’Donoghue, but also by the decision of ANA to swap its orders from the high capacity, short range 787-3 to the baseline 787-8 - this means Boeing will have more money and resources to put into the current flight test regime as opposed to diverting it to a third model in the family after the 787-9.

Boeing has, in the past on the 787, made bad judgement calls on planned schedule targets and after five costly delays, the company isn’t likely to assume that it’s plain-sailing based on a month of flight tests.

The three key points stand out – first is that the side of body fix on the remaining four flight test jets has to be completed so that they can get airborne. The second is that the Boeing does not eat up the buffer in the schedule and then push back deliveries into Q1FY11. The third is that the 747-8F flight test programme must run alongside the 787 using existing resources.

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Not only would that incur significant cash penalties for further delays, but that would also mean the supply chain would likely have to slow down production because as the pace of flight testing spreads out, precious ramp space at the manufacturer’s Everett facility will be at a premium.

Already the supply chain has dealt with fastener issues, delamination, side of body woes and a slow pace of production – this will be tested further still with the second line in North Charleston, South Carolina.

Boeing can ill-afford to let either the 787 or 747-8F schedules slide – deliveries are important as the 747-8 is in a loss position and the 787 has taken substantial financial blows already.

A barometer for success will be not only how quickly the remaining four 787 test airplanes get flying, but also how quickly the elements required for certification are ticked off the “to-do” list. It is unlikely that Boeing will trade safety for a service entry target – having seen the A380 suffer a spate of in-service mishaps, the 787 has no choice but to be a mature airplane at handover considering the length of time it has been delayed.

Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafia is correct when he says the schedule is tight, but that will depend on the pacing of validation required by certification efforts in tandem with the computer modelling Boeing has already completed.

As Boeing continues to whittle down the 3000-plus flight hours as part of the certification efforts, the delays to the 787 have so far yielded positive results during initial flights – Boeing has to emulate the success it had with the 777-300ER if it aims to deliver the first example of this revolutionary airplane.

History suggests that Boeing’s experience with twin-jet operations will certainly be viewed as an asset, but the 787 incorporates so many new flight dynamics as well as new materials and flight software, there is a long road yet to traverse upon.